Nber business cycle dating
The expansion of 1912 lasted twelve months; the expansion of 1919 lasted 10 months.Committee members are William Branson, Princeton University; Martin Feldstein and Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University; Robert Gordon, Northwestern University (who did not attend today's meeting); Robert Hall, Stanford University; Geoffrey Moore, Rutgers University; and Victor Zarnowitz, University of Chicago.The National Bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough to a peak is an expansion.According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in March 2001, ending a record-long expansion that began in 1991.CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.In determining whether a recession has occurred and in identifying the approximate dates of the peak and the trough, we therefore place considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U. For this reason, we refer to a variety of monthly indicators to determine the months of peaks and troughs.
In choosing the dates of business-cycle turning points, we follow standard procedures to assure continuity in the chronology.
In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.
We also look at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see
(January 6,1982) Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Bulletin on Health including Archive of Lists of Affiliates' Work in Medical and Other Journals with Pre-Publication Restrictions Archives of Bulletin on Aging and Health Digest — Non-technical summaries of 4-8 working papers per month Reporter — News about the Bureau and its activities.
CAMBRIDGE, December 21 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on December 21. It appears likely that the Committee will identify a month between June and September 1990 as the peak of activity in the economy and the onset of a recession.